Covid-19 cases in Havering have risen by a minimum of 21 per cent every week since mid-September, according to the latest government data.
Figures published the day before a planned second national lockdown showed that whilst measures like the “rule of six” and the regional tiered system had been followed by reductions in the spread, cases had nonetheless continued to rise.
In the most recent full week of data – the seven days up to Thursday, October 29 – cases increased in Havering by 21.4 per cent.
On October 29, there were 482 confirmed cases in the borough, giving an infection rate of 185.7 cases per 100,000 people.
On Monday, October 26, Havering registered its highest ever number of new cases in one day – 96.
But overall, the figures suggested successive measures had had an impact in Havering – just not quite enough.
Between mid-September and early October, cases were rising by up to 57pc per week.
The “rule of six” was introduced in mid-September, but Covid-19’s incubation period means it takes two or three weeks to see the results.
By mid-October, Havering’s rate of spread had reduced by roughly two-fifths - but cases were still rising each week by between 29 and 30pc.
At that time, government introduced regional, tiered measures. Two weeks later, in the week up to October 29, the rate of spread dropped by roughly another third.
However, cases still rose by 21.4pc and parts of the borough now had infection rates comparable to much of the north-west and the midlands.
The government has a seven-tier scale for measuring how severe an area’s infection rate is, based on cases per 100,000 people.
In communities with fewer than 100,000 people, infection rates are converted into an equivalent of per 100,000 so they can be objectively compared.
Havering’s latest figure of 185.7 puts it at the top end of the third-worst category, but if cases have continued growing at the same rate then it will soon enter the second-worst category.
Several Havering communities were already at the second-worst level by October 29. One – Elm Park East – was close to being in the worst. It had an infection rate of 373 cases per 100,000 people. Anything over 400 is placed in the worst category.
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